Blowing up unexpected effects: Jorge Capitanich and Daniel Scioli. Political news up to date

Going over the outstanding events of local politics always turns out to be an honestly tedious task for any journalist or communicator. Glove slap that can only be accepted by those having plenty of time as well as an inevitable tendency to get involved in apparently nonsensical trouble. Worth clarifying: the effort could perfectly represent an evident waste of energy bearing in mind that the most important part of public opinion prefers to learn about details of the twenty-fourth pregnancy of a Juanita Viale or Maru Botana, the private life of insipid characters such as Marcelo Tinelli, Susana Giménez, Ricardo Fort and Aníbal Pachano. The explanation for this may not necessarily be based on the very low cultural level which distinguishes the ordinary citizen. Perhaps, the average Argentinian is not so silly but prefers to evade himself with news from the show business zoo rather than paying attention to the political one that –who could doubt it?- is a faithful representative of the abulia and the ¨more of the same¨. The growing pack of 2011-governorship aspirants should, from now on, pay attention to the undisguised reality showing that ¨people¨ do not have much interest in what they have to say. Not in vain, TV programmes like Jorge Rial’s, Beto Casella’s and the unnatural-red-coloured hair Viviana Canosa`s have taken off reaching an unbearable vertigo. However, the protagonists of the governing arena are requesting clearance. The border between politicians and actors blurs. Something similar occurs with the increasingly thinner boundary line between candidates and consumption products. Nevertheless, this debate belongs to the scope of sociologists and social psicologists. It does not make much sense to risk oneself entering that terrain. On this field of conversation, it is correct to grant ¨the right hand¨ to the intellectual Jorge Asís, who makes good use of his Twitter to regale us with resplendent occasional little pearls. For some time, the writer grown into an analyst, has been referring to what he has named as the ¨irresponsible death¨ of Néstor Carlos Kirchner. A temporary radio silence is mandatory upon that not-at-all innocent expression but, more recently he has got into the matter of Graciela Camaño´s slap to Carlos Kunkel in order to remind his readers that Argentina is far from being a monotonous country. How right he is. An invitation to burst out laughing comes from Kirchnerism when they, Agustín Rossi at the top, devote themselves full-time to the new victimazing construction of Kunkel´s image, agent provocateur par excellence of the K power. However, what definitely ends up wiping the smile off the face is the obligatory revision of Don Carlos past and his acknowledged participation in the denominated ¨Operación Primicia¨ (Montoneros attack on an army garrison in Formosa). The currently Member of Parliament has always been a man of action but now, facing the end of his career, he becomes surprised by a woman´s soft slap. Fierce, but a woman at last. That´s why Camaño beckons to a round of applause. Kunkel himself and Oscar ¨Larry¨ Parrilli –devoted scholars of the propaganda mechanisms from Nazi Germany and Bolshevik Russia- should be reminded that victimization strategies can only succeed if there is a certain social margin of approval to the Administration which the executor claims to represent. Precisely that support from citizens is what the government clearly lack of nowaydays. Even worse: victimization, by repetition, reaps the opposite effect. This is what happens when the operator gets wrapped in books and theory, isolated from what is actually happenning in the streets ¨here and now¨. Graciela Camaño´s slap playing along with a Kirchnerism in need of resourses worth exploiting was not her mistake. Her fundamental error was not having seized a microphone to ask by word of mouth about the reasons for Kunkel´s survival during the military repression of the dark 70s. Certainly an intermingled and thorny momentum of history to which conundrums only a few uniformed retirees dare, retirees who remember that the attacked K deputy is now ¨alive and kicking¨ because he negotiated with the militar power of the moment, betraying his camrades in arms. A ¨little sin¨ attributed to many, with enough years behind their back, today do not stop showing themselves proud of their revolutionary past. As if they wanted to redeem themselves from that sense of guilt by exaggerating their own myth. Acknowledging a high degree of innocense: Why are business and politics reluctant to shed light on what really happened during those dark years, exposing –by the way- their present media perpetrators? I dive into first person writing to share a confession: I comprehend politics, but I do not understand it. Perhaps, in the heart of this sentence the reason why political leaders are so far from ordinary citizens can be found. But let´s continue, then, with the surrogates from the questionable inner circle. Elisa Carrió seemed to have started up the engine again, the parlamentary discussion on 2011 Budget overheated. However, she did not manage to ¨shift to second gear¨: her accusing tactic backfired because she refused to reveal the identity of the protagonists involved in the issue. The woman from Chaco has not yet acknowledged that her image has been demolished by a clever kirchnerism, who brands her as a ¨serial accuser¨. As though that was not enough for Lilita, society sympathises with the demolition that the Pink House has mounted to the detriment of her image: that society already do not believe her. On top of that, the unknown but attractive Cynthia Hotton, coming from the ¨arch of Evangelism¨, surpassed her. Because Hotton, indeed, revealed the identity of the dignatary responsible for the dubious offer made to her. And it was the deputy Patricia Fadel, a poor woman whose sin is not to understand anything at all, in spite of being in the ring. Fadel suffers from acute amateurism because she did not take in the golden rule in politics: a scapegoat is always necessary. This time, it will be her. Because Kirchner´s kirchnerism and now Cristinas´s only moves in a way that agrees with betrayal even to the most faithful soldier if it serves the purpose of avoiding fire. From the pages of El Ojo Digital, we have been noticing this reality till weariness. In the episode of the offering to opposition deputies, the usual manual took effect: a minister shall never call personally on the phone of the Member of Parliament he intends to bribe; the official shall always choose a useful idiot to do the dirty job. Also truck driver Hugo Moyano seems to be losing the clearness from past years. He does not seem to realise that Judge Norberto Oyharbide has chosen him to close his career in Justice with a platinum clasp. A magistrate about to retire – it`s said – is almost as dangerous as a vindictive woman. Questioned CGT boss – with his performance in River Plate- thought he had sent a threatening message to his distrusting bosses and to the opposition who constantly reminds him of his responsability in the affair of medicine mafia. However, it was not mentioned that he added roughly 30 thousand citizens from bordering nations without carrying an ID card to the list of members of his organization who joined him at the Stadium. Even though it is said that President Cristina Fernández will not yet betray Moyano, and that she prefers to keep him at bay with a threat of jail, it would be fair to say that Oyharbide is no longer under the aegis of government. Kirchner disapeared, the judge will go for Don Hugo and his partners in the disaster of medicines. It will be necessary to see what happens with court clerks leader Julio Piumato, renamed by his colleague Christian Sanz as ¨The man in Asbestos¨. The death of Néstor Carlos Kirchner —once again the impact of such news is prevailing over political spectrum— fell as a real atomic bomb into the Unión Cívica Radical (UCR) bunkers. Yrigoyen's place has been contaminated by the radioactive ashes of the passing of the bossy-boots, since by now the differences between the opinions on how to oppose in a credible way to the governing party have increased. There exist poles apart, those open to dialogue and those ready to confront Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. In this regard, it is understandable that some camrades show good will trying to attend to the Parliament and give quorum to pass the controversial 2011 Budget. However, this attittude would only be considered by the public opinion as a token of complicity with the governing party and this is a problem which the UCR ("radicales") who are open to a dialogue will have to face. Indeed this would also affect those who still try to keep the UCR as an opposition party. Another direct consequence is that Ricardo Alfonsín is becoming aware that his presidential campaign loses its essential purpose. Nor does it help him having being photographed with the current President and her administration fellows. It is likely that Alfonsín Jr. will be getting closer to put himself forward to as a candidate for the post of Governor for the Province of Buenos Aires, and for the time being the ones who are better positioned for such post are Francisco de Narváez --in spite of all his imperfections-- and Sergio Massa. Would former president`s son agree with the Federal Peronists? It is worth considering it. Would it be it crazy to think of a tandem Alfonsín-Massa? Meanwhile Ernesto Sanz, who is being compared with Julio Cobos, is earning points. The UCR opponents seem to be more organic than the federal "peronistas", they know how to hide their internal differences in a tidier way and how to move on in the shadows while taking advantage of the little interest they create in the citizens. These are the disadvantages of the low popularity, as it is known. The analysis described above is not made by chance, it helps destroying the self-confidence of those who thought that the passing away of Cristina Fernández's husband would make more damage in the Federal Peronists or Dissidents. In this regard, the weird events occur at a pace which do not invite to premature speculation. In order to make a "follow-up" of the dissident Peronists, it is advisable not to take into account the cross-words between those supporting Duhalde and Carlos Reutemann. These words may represent a charade for hiding some kind of a strategy. More than bedchamber disputes they are different ways of confronting the governing party. Assuming that the governing party may incorporate the dissidents, may be wrong. It actually might be that the dissidents may be sliping in the Kirchnerist party to blow it up from the inside. Such method would seem to be more efficient after two months have gone by: since the current tense political and social situation and the possibility that some of the government important figures could be legally in jeopardy, the Kirchnerists may be tempted to abandon the sinking ship in due advance. And such a thing would be better if handled from the inside. In any case, the breaking-off element of the presidential ambitions of the Federal Peronists is represented by a fierce battle not among the candidates but among their environment. All three most important players have them, by far. Even an amateur knows that the best way of defeating a rival is by infiltrating himself into the opponent's environment to sorround him and finish his task. In the last stage, the work is completed by itself: number one ends suffocated by a veil of self-destructing paranoia and starts to distrust anyone, thus remaining inevitably paralysed to act. Collapse comes afterwards and, like in chess, the king lays down. To plan this kind of action it is necessary to have a great amount of patience and extensive communication skills to permanently distract not only your opponents but also your fellows; the manipulation of the media also plays an essential role in getting him near to your own strategy. The most obvious conclusion would be that this sort of beneficial conflict among the environment of Federal Peronists candidates could perfectly cost the governing party the general election called for October 2011 –provided elections are held on schedule. The Kirchnerist political party without Kirchner could fully exploit it, although the possibility that this happens has been reduced since the physical disappearance of the all-powered boss. So far and to give some names, it is known that Alberto Rodríguez Saá and Eduardo Duhalde have agreed to discuss who the number one to be nominated as presidential candidate will be, only after they know the results of the polls which have been entrusted to foreign pollsters. Statistics will only be known in March. At the end of this article we shall reveal the strategies of two figures who apparently try to hide. We shall start with Jorge Milton Capitanich Popovich – alias “Coqui”, from the Province of Chaco, who surprisingly remains inside the presidential cathole. Being the governor of one of the most artificially devastated province in Argentina, he has been aware of the fact that President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has no interest in fighting for the presidential bench after 2011. Capitanich does not even need the official confirmation of this fact and he is already talking about it with cheeky Juan Manuel Urtubey from the Province of Salta (who will give him his regional support) and confesses his ambitions among his close friends. Those who are used to criticizing his acts are not surprised since they already know that the Governor of the Province of Chaco has always been fond of power. His partner from the northeast, “Don” Aldo Ducler (Mercado Abierto) had already opened negotiations when Néstor Kirchner was still alive, but his death has speeded up the pretensions. From his own sector, his initiative to get near the Pink House has already started by means of subsidiaries, announcements and new enterprises –promises which are doubtful to be ever completed. The former Member of Parliament Adam Pedrini has already enlightened many readers about this candidate as for example in: http://juancastarcreaciones.blogspot.com/2009/09/quien-es-jorge-milton-capitanich.html [English translation not available] As far as Daniel Scioli is concerned, he is now realizing that the presidential bench as well as his re-election as governor of the Province of Buenos Aires are becoming farther. Indeed, his five minutes of fame have soon evaporated. Which alternative has he got? To run as Governor of the City of Buenos Aires. The formal complaints about domestic violence reported to the police by his wife, Karina Rabollini, will not stop him. Scioli is convinced that the people of the city of Buenos Aires could probably buy his tag “To work, to work, to work”. Being aware that Daniel Scioli may no longer be dreaming with the presidential bench, Capitanich from the Province of Chaco, increases his ploy to build his own project. In politics, as it has always been, the loss of a man becomes the profit of another. The culmination of this material points out some news to which El Ojo Digital had access and which are about the current President, Cristina Elisabet Fernández Wilhelm. Apparently, the entreaties of her daughter Florencia – alias “Florkey” – were heard by the First Lady: to abandon the re-election project and settle abroad and thus gaining peace. Although “Floppy” suggests life in New York, Cristina likes the Old World better. The widow is motivated by the pictures of the Italian Villa d’Este. A place which not only seems perfect to find relaxation, but also to start writing her memories. The Lady wishes to retire from Argentine politics and while being abroad find some time for making reflections and to wander around the globe giving conferences and –why not come back after a couple of years—to continue teaching how to make things (well). It becomes imperative to question if she will be allowed to leave Argentina after the end of her term of office as if “nothing has happened here”? Nevertheless, it is good to share that the Lady was clearly informed that the surveys indicate that, for the time being, she will not win the elections in first round. The last colourful news has to do with her recent crazy idea. A few days ago, she contacted a few number of veteran experts to give an intensive course on how to be a political leader to Máximo I, Prince of Río Gallegos. The answer of those summoned to this last attempt to extend the family inheritance was categorical: “To this poor boy? Don’t rely on me”. An ominous rejection for an more than embarrassing end of the Kirchnerist dynasty. “Poor boy” has not actually been the exact expression. However, as long as this short story is concerned, a sense of decorum is maintained. It would not be of any benefit to splinter the sensitivity of the crown prince. English translation by Debora Gravano Jordán. e-Mail: debora.gravano @ gmail.com Matías E. Ruiz, Editor. e-Mail: contacto @ elojodigital.com Twitter: http://twitter.com/matiaseruiz